Team Maps - Women's ODI World Cup

So the real question coming into any World Cup at the moment is, are you backing Australia or the field?

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Australia have been stuck in a win-ception loop for a long time. They are one of the greatest sides in cricket history.

They’re like a supergroup only made up of musicians you’ve actually heard of. They almost never lose. And when they do, we all wonder if this is the beginning of the end. Then, they seemingly start winning again, and the entire cycle just restarts. We don’t even really know where they are in their reign. The only thing we do know is they will probably win.

But how good are they, and how good are the others?

There is no World Cup where everyone turns up knowing exactly what all the teams can do. For a channel like ours that wants to know as much as we can, we have a cheat. We call them “team maps”- invented by me to analyze tournament performance and understand teams. We have updated and tweaked it with a special source algorithm to show how strong teams are in different phases of a match.

The bigger your shape, the better you are. When it comes to the Australian women, you could see they’re very good because they’re yellow. And they almost dominate every single part of 50-over cricket. We divide ODIs into eight phases, and Australia are the best team in six of them. That means for three-quarters of any match, they’re not just better than their opposition - they’re the best in the world.

When you look at a pattern like this, you start to think that this is a team that should win the World Cup. And that’s not news.

But how can the other teams can challenge them? And maybe more importantly, who is the best of the rest, with the best chance of upsetting Australia?

India are second favourites, and home conditions will certainly help. The first thing you notice is what an incredibly even side they are on our metrics. They’re almost rated one for everything. It is really like a perfect shape.

However, what you will notice here is they’re not particularly good at anything in the overall metric. They’re just not bad at anything either. They’re just neutral at almost everything. We have them as 5% better than normal.

The only two truly elite periods are probably the second part of the middle overs with the bat, and then you can come down to the second part of the middle overs with the ball.

That’s a bit of a weird pattern. They absolutely dominate teams late in the middle overs, but what’s more interesting - especially when you look at the bowling - is they don’t do very well in the first part of the middle overs.

So once the ball gets older and starts to get scuffed up, they really take over. But when it’s still a little bit hard, teams are actually dominating them quite a bit.

Overall, what you are looking at here is just a good, solid team. Given the home conditions, you have to admit they don’t have many weaknesses. They have as good a chance as anyone of coming second to Australia.

Another team that you would think of as more of a rounded side isn’t quite, and that is New Zealand. They’re fascinating in their own ways. They obviously won the last World Cup, albeit in a different format. We have them as 12% better than neutral, so they’re a fairly good side, all things considered.

But what’s really interesting here is they have a few really good peaks. The first part of the middle overs is a really, really nice one. And then of course, the death batting is just absolutely brilliant. And then in the powerplay, they bowl really well. So in three segments, they’re a dominant side.

Their issue when competing with a team like Australia is the middle overs period. They’re slightly above par at the beginning of the middle overs, but towards the end of those, they obviously get whacked a little bit. What I really like about them is outside of that one weakness, they’re pretty well-rounded, but with peaks. I think if you’re going to beat a team like Australia, being able to smash a load at the death or taking a bunch of new-ball wickets is a big help.

The Pakistan team is 17% worse than neutral. Compared to a good team like New Zealand, you could just see how different these shapes are. Pakistan is just under par every single way that you look.

If you want their strength, it’s probably their middle overs bowling all the way through. Their numbers actually stack up pretty good there. They’re still negative, but they’re a lot closer to neutral than anywhere else.

And if you’ve ever watched them play, you’ll know that they usually start decently in the powerplay. They could collapse from time to time, but they have some good players who score quite well. And then after the powerplay, they kind of stop.

It’s been a pattern for quite some time now. So even if you think they have started well in Pakistan, chances are it’s going to slow down quite a bit.

However, because they’re a bowling side, they’re pretty good in the powerplay and obviously really good in the middle overs combined. If they do bowl first and keep the opposition to a low total, they can do a quite a bit of damage when they’re batting against the new ball. It means that they do have a template of a side that can win, even if it is just sporadic.

When you look at the Pakistan and the South African teams combined with each other, you do realize the different level here. South Africa are a side that’s done really well to stay relevant and almost win tournaments, even though they’ve lost some of their best players to retirements and other things.

But overall, we still only have them as 3% better than neutral. They do have a couple of parts of the game that they’re very good at.

However, they also have a couple of parts of the game that they’re not so good at. They’re not very good at playing spin in the middle overs, and they’re not particularly good at bowling spin in the middle overs. For a tournament in the subcontinent, this is not the pattern you want to see.

But they do have a bit of power. So if they can hold in against the spinners, they can certainly whack the new ball bowlers, which is a bit of a strength for them. And then, they’re even better at the death. Their bowling just doesn’t inspire any great confidence.

They’re still a very good team and they usually find a way to win games at World Cups. So let’s see if they can continue that. But this doesn’t look like a challenger to win the cup.