The road to the T20 World Cup final
Obviously, India are favourites. But as always, the Kiwis are a Matt Henry spell away from victory.
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I feel the need, the need for speed.
I don’t, but the two teams in the T20 World Cup final are also the two fastest scoring sides in the competition. New Zealand are just shy of 10 runs per over, while India are at 9.84. Interestingly, they’re also the two most high-intent batting lineups.
Coming in, everyone knew this about India. But the Kiwis are set up differently.
We had these two teams we ranked at the top of the Power Rankings earlier in the tournament. But for New Zealand, even though it was a power ranking, it wasn’t about their power.
However, we even mentioned Finn Allen in our World Cup questions piece, because he had the ability to turn this into a different kind of team.
The run rate boom in T20s began a couple of years back, but in cricket, conditions are king. The last World Cup in the Caribbean and USA was the lowest-scoring ever, while this one in India and Sri Lanka is the fastest; up 0.72 runs an over from 2007 in second spot. And if we just take matches in India, the run rate further jumps up.
And the last three team totals in the tournament have just been mind-blowing. On good batting wickets, we’ve seen players continue going for it, even in a knockout clash. No more getting your eye in or knocking it around after the field is spread out, lads.
The ICC keeps putting consolidation overs up on the screen. But even the Kiwis, who have anchors in their middle order, aren’t playing that way
Looking at these teams and the pitch, the expected runs in the first innings of this match is 200.
No team has ever made more than 180 in a World Cup final. If there was every a time to break that, it would appear to be now.
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New Zealand
Group Stage
The Kiwis were in the proverbial ‘Group of Death’.
They started their campaign against Afghanistan, who had given them a mauling at Guyana in 2024. At Chepauk, New Zealand conceded 182, and that was after Matt Henry and Mitch Santner conceded only 50 in their 8. They also lost Finn Allen and Rachin Ravindra in the second over, but Tim Seifert and Glenn Phillips added 74 runs in under eight overs. All the batters to follow chipped in with useful cameos as they chased it down with 13 balls to spare.
Their bowling was under the pump against the UAE too, who managed 173. But the Kiwi opening pair made a mockery of the target - Seifert smashed plenty of fours, while Allen was more about the sixes.
When South Africa beat Afghanistan (eventually), it meant that New Zealand’s path opened up and they no longer had to beat the Proteas.
Maybe that took some steam out of that contest, but after being 64/4 they still kept hitting. However, they lost too many wickets, and South Africa destroyed them in the powerplay.
New Zealand’s bowling continued to be an issue. Jacob Duffy had come to India in great form, but it wasn’t working on these surfaces. Canada scored 173 against them, too.
